When The Fishes Are Gone

The Cuaming Example

In the late 80's I had the pleasure of visiting a small island near Bohol called Cuaming. It wasn't Boracay, but I fell in love with its natural beauty. White sand, crystal clear water that stretched out forever. Just a few meters away from the beach, you would find coral reefs, and fishes you would only find in the gigantic aquarium at Oceanpark Hong Kong. The islanders' main source of income was fishing. And there was an abundance of it to sell and for personal consumption. The folks who lived there could afford to send their children to the universities of nearby Cebu with the income generated from their harvests. And, at that time, they didn't need to go far in order to have a plentiful catch.

But, Cuaming fishermen used illegal means in acquiring their produce. Most of them used dynamites and cyanide. They used these openly and even shared materials with each other. You would hear explosions from nearby fishing boats all day. Stories were casually shared of tragedies that resulted from mishandling of the bombs. The men of Cuaming harvested the sea using every means available to them; unmindful of the consequences of their actions. They never imagined that one day, there won't be any fish left to catch.

Now, the corals are all dead. Decimated by their poison. The fishes are gone. The new generation of fishermen from the island need to travel to distant waters to catch fish. With no fish to catch, they find it hard to survive the cost of daily living. They don't look back at their own follies though. They blame the government instead for their pitiful plight.

The SSS As Our Ocean

At first glance, the veto on HB 5842 seems callous. The bill proposes a two-thousand peso increase to the pension of some two million Filipinos. Yes, I agree it is quite disheartening to many; including my own parents. But, if we look a little closer, the action of President Noynoy Aquino actually makes sense. Especially, if you look at the timing of this whole episode.

We should put into perspective that 2016 is an election year. Almost all of the members of Congress are standing for elective posts. It is again the season when politicians love to play with populist agenda and legislation in the hope of gaining pogi points. It is a time for grandstanding! A time to give false hope to the masses! Our lawmakers were already made aware that this bill is not financially feasible in August.

They have been told that Social Security premiums need to be increased from the current 11% to 15% in order to make this a viable option. But, increasing the premium would anger the majority of workers; who are incidentally, voters. The president didn't offer false hope. It was the lawmakers who peddled this lie; not Aquino.

As a result of his actions, Mr. Aquino has drawn the ire of the beneficiaries. And I admire him for having the balls to do the right thing, however unpopular. That is political will! Signing the bill would have been the easiest thing to do, considering that his term will end in a few months. He could have approved it and let the next two administrations sort out the resulting mess. His chosen successor could also capitalize on this for his own campaign. But no! The president chose to look at the big picture. A future where present contributors to the SSS will have access to the benefits they deserve. This proves President Aquino is beyond politics. You wanted a straight path? That's your proof! It may be harsh to some, but that is the right thing to do!

It is in my best interest that the SSS survives beyond 2029. I am a stakeholder of the system. I too deserve to receive my monthly pensions when the time comes. I thank the president for looking after my future, and for not giving in to the myopic views of the selfish politicians. For making sure that there will still be fish to catch after 2029.

It Was, Is, And Will Always Be The Economy!

Several political and personal issues in the past few weeks have clouded what really is at stake in the coming general elections. I don't really give a hoot what the background of each presidential candidate is. I don't care if he or she was schooled from the best institution or not. Nor am I worried about the candidate's family background. These are all superficial issues compared to that of the economic health of the Philippines.

The specter of having Rodrigo Duterte gives me the creeps more than anything. This foul-mouthed sorry excuse for a human being has been topping polls conducted among voters across the country. He comes in as a fearless leader, determined to bring peace and order back at any cost. I shall discuss my rebuttal to refute such fantastic claims at another time. For now, I ask: What does Duterte plan to do with our economy? He's made several pronouncements, and none of them has touched on national money matters. But first, Let's take a peek at what's currently on the table.

Show Me The Money

In recent years, the Philippines has been performing quite well financially. Standard and Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch have all upgraded the country's credit rating - from near junk in 2009 - more than once. The Philippine Stock Exchange experienced record highs in the last few years because of this. Investor confidence in the Philippines has never been this optimistic.

The Bangko Sentral has also performed well in keeping the economy stable. The country weathered the Greek bailout crisis, the Shanghai Stock Exchange meltdown, and the US Fed rate adjustment. Also, the USD-PHP exchange rate has been stable, This is positive news to OFW families, exporters, and other businesses who earn green-money. As a result, he purchasing power of people who rely on monthly remittance from overseas has also stabilized.

The global futures market went down considerably in 2015. Commodities like precious metals and crude oil stubbornly stayed down. No one really foresaw oil to go down this low. Although the factors affecting the price of oil are global rather than local in nature, Filipinos are enjoying the results. Local and international travel became more affordable. Have a look at your friends' recent posts on Facebook and Instagram, and you'll see it's true. But, as petrol prices fell, it also resulted in heavy traffic jams in the big cities of the metropolis. And that is another story.

Critics of the present administration complain that wealth is not trickling down to the poor. Hollow criticisms at best. Consumer confidence remains high! The shopping malls are perpetually full. Andrew Tan was able to buy Fundador from all the Empi Lights purchased nationwide. And, have you seen the amount of firecrackers exploded in the developmental areas as 2015 came to a close? Or the average amount of alcohol consumed by its "indigent" residents during the holidays? I can assure you, my numbers would pale in comparison to theirs. In some cases,. the root of the problem is not poverty, but priority.

We are on the right path! Despite of all the acts of God that hit us, we are economically strong and stable!

Enter Duterte

The mayor of Davao City favors populist policies championed by local communists. Policies that excite the unthinking masses, but help drive away businesses who are looking to invest in a free market economy. It is no surprise, since he is a protege Jose Maria Sison. He reeks of communism; an ideology that has been proven to fail in the last century. He has announced his desire to give the reds three important seats in his cabinet, should he win. These are the departments of Agrarian Reform, Environment and Natural Resources, and Social Welfare and Development. What will stop him from giving them National Defense, and Interior and Local Government?

His pitch is anchored around the promise of no non-sense peace and order. He has threatened to dissolve congress and kill people if his wishes are defied. Peace based on threats of death and harassment?  International groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have already called our attention on Duterte's poor human rights record. He has cheekily exhibited despotic tendencies. And yet, his zealots don't mind or understand the consequences of a Duterte presidency.

Peace does not automatically equate to prosperity

We only need to look at the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. A country with zero crime rate. No drugs, no rape, no murder, etc. A tranquil land full of citizens who adore their leader, And yet, international investors stay away from it like the way one would avoid the crabs, or pubic lice. The ordinary North Korean suffers from malnutrition, physically and mentally. It has an economy rated next to rubbish! North Korea should be sufficient proof that a crazy leader with absolute power is not the answer to national woes.

Davao City boasts of being the most peaceful city in the entire planet (the info came from a crowd-sourcing website based in Serbia called Numbeo). And yet, investors still prefer to do business in the chaos of Metro Manila and Metro Cebu. With all the propaganda promoting the city as a haven, people still look to the mayhem of the bigger cities to find work, prosperity, and business. The bitter truth is: Duterte has very little business sense, and is too arrogant to admit it. His punk-ass attitude is a big turn-off, and not an attraction. Political will is his biggest plus! But that is the only item he has in his meager arsenal. Everything else that comes after are blanks. And those are the reasons why after two decades in power, only a handful of big companies have setup shop in his locale.

Duterte Will Be A Bane

The international community is observing Duterte closely as May 2016 approaches. Recently, Citigroup asked him to unveil his economic platform. So far, the mayor has responded by saying he will abolish algebra and trigonometry from the school curriculum if he becomes president. Before that he expressed his plans to impose a 2 AM curfew nationwide. What does he plan to do with the economy? Silence... As you would expect from someone ill-equipped to lead a country. The economic climate is fast evolving. 2016 ushered in the birth of the ASEAN Economic Community. What will Duterte bring to the ASEAN table? Will he be taken seriously by other regional leaders? 

The popularity to Rodrigo Duterte has skyrocketed in the past few months. If the trend continues, he might as well be the next president of the Republic of the Philippines. That possibility scares me because I fear specifically for the future of my children, and the country in general.

We are, as a nation, on the verge of making an economic breakthrough. More than a handful of things need to be put in order after this administration leaves. But, I will state it again: We are, whether you like it or not, economically strong and stable!